What – So What – Now What – NFC Championship


So the Vikings are favored by 3 the last I checked this morning.  I don’t agree, but if we compare some basic stats of the Eagles opponents at home and of those teams the Vikings played on the road –


Yes, it’s Excel, but let’s focus on what’s important.  The image below depicts the average offensive and defensive rank of the Eagles opponents at home in 2017.  I’ve also added turn-over ration as it’s a critical component that can quickly change the momentum or outcome of a game (See Case Keenum’s pic in the Divisional Round).  There are 32 teams in the league – the average offensive and defensive rank in over 20.  That’s essentially the bottom third of the league.  What does that mean? I defer to the Bill Parcell’s quote.  “You are what your record says you are.”  The Eagles competition at home was less than stellar. 



If the pundits are comparing the same stats of the Vikings road opponents, you can make the argument that the Vikings on the road are better than then the Eagles are at home.  The average

Offensive Rank of the Vikings road foes was 17.50, average Defensive Rank?  the same, 17.50.  There opponents, on both sides of the ball, were better than half of the league.  That's a significant

diffence, especially when you consider that there record was 6-2 on the road, losing to Pittsburgh the week after Bradford went down and Carolina, who simply out played them. 

Yes, the Vikings are favored as of today.  Should they be, probably not. If you give the home team 3 pts for being the home team and you take 3 pts from an in-door team playing outside, that's Philly

favored by 6 right there.  If the competition of both of these teams matters at all, then you have to give some points back to the Vikings, but 9?  I don't think so.  The Eagles should be favored by 2.